A ROLE-TYPE MODEL (ROPE) AND ITS APPLICATION IN ASSESSING CLIMATE-CHANGE IMPACTS ON FOREST LANDSCAPES

Gap-phase replacement is a general phenomenon found in forest ecosyste ms, worldwide. Different tree species can be expected to produce diffe rent sizes of gaps when they die. Species also vary in their regenerat ion success in gaps of different sizes. In this paper, the gap-phase i nteractions among tree species in a forest stand are simulated by a ro le-type stand model called ROPE. By incorporation of environmental eff ects on tree height, ROPE can simulate forest composition and stand le af area under different climate conditions. The model was developed fo r forest ecosystems in northeastern China and was used to simulate the forest landscape structures under current climate conditions and unde r four climate change scenarios for greenhouse gas related warming. Th ese scenarios were obtained from general circulation models developed by different atmospheric research centers. Korean pine-broadleaf mixed forest and larch forest are the major stand types in the study area u nder present conditions. Under the four climate change scenarios, Kore an pine-broadleaf mixed forest would be expected to occur only on the higher parts of large mountains. Larch forest only would be found nort h of the study area. Broadleaf forest would become the dominant vegeta tion over the study area. Use of the Kappa statistic to test for simil arity in spatial maps, indicates that each climate change scenario wou ld result in a significant change of forest distributions.