THE EFFECTS OF STATISTICAL TRAINING ON CHOICE HEURISTICS IN CHOICE UNDER UNCERTAINTY

Kahneman and Tversky (1984) proposed that decision makers perceive cho ice uncertainty in two ways: (1) as a distribution of possible outcome s or (2) as a single uncertain outcome. Using statistical training as a factor that influences these perceptions, and thus the type of decis ion approach individuals use, we found that individuals with different levels of experience displayed differences in the decisions they made and in the choice heuristics used to make those decisions. Statistica lly naive individuals were more likely to prefer loss-minimizing alter natives, use a more non-compensatory heuristic, and spend more time on loss-related information than their statistically experienced counter parts. When a distributional cue, indicating the distributional nature of choice outcomes, was presented to both experience groups, the naiv e group was found to use a decision approach similar to the experience d group and to make similar decisions. The results are discussed in te rms of the need to include factors that alter individuals' approaches to uncertainty in future behavioral models of uncertain choice.