Whether subjective memory complaints in the absence of objective memor
y decline can predict future dementia has been investigated only in hi
ghly selected clinical and volunteer cohorts. Our study examines this
question in a subsample of AMSTEL (Amsterdam Study of the Elderly), a
longitudinal population study on cognitive decline and dementia. Subje
cts (aged 65 to 84 years; n = 357) without dementia or other psychiatr
ic disorders at baseline were followed for 3 years. After this interva
l, 16 of 203 re-examined patients developed a dementia. Logistic regre
ssion analyses indicated that memory complaints at baseline contribute
d a small but significant amount of diagnostic information. However, t
he most powerful predictor of future dementia was deficient memory per
formance. We conclude that subjective memory complaints may predict de
mentia within 3 years, particularly when there are objective signs of
memory deterioration.