PURPOSE: Bacteriuria is common among institutionalized elderly populat
ions, but the contribution of urinary infection to febrile morbidity i
s unknown because of difficulties in clinical ascertainment. This stud
y was undertaken to measure the contribution of urinary infection to f
ebrile morbidity using both clinical and serologic criteria. METHODS:
Episodes of fever in residents of two long-term care institutions were
identified prospectively for 2 years. Serum and urine specimens were
obtained initially and at 4 weeks. The proportion of episodes attribut
able to urinary infection was determined by both standard clinical cri
teria proposed for use in these populations and serum antibody respons
e to uropathogens. RESULTS: For 372 fever episodes, 211 met clinical c
riteria for infection: 147 (40%) of the respiratory tract; 26 (7%) of
the genitourinary tract; 25 (6%) of the gastrointestinal tract; and 13
(3%) of skin and soft tissue. Of the remaining 161 fever episodes, 2
(1%) were noninfectious and 159 (43%) were of unknown origin. The prev
alence of bacteriuria for residents with nongenitourinary sources of f
ever varied from 32% to 75%. An antibody response meeting serologic cr
iteria for urinary infection occurred in 26 (8.3%) of 314 episodes wit
h paired sera obtained; 10 (43%) of 23 identified clinically as genito
urinary infection, 14 (11%) of 132 unknown, 1 (4%) of 25 gastrointesti
nal, and 1 (0.8%) of 122 respiratory. The positive predictive value of
bacteriuria for febrile urinary infection identified by clinical crit
eria was 11% (95% confidence interval [CI] 4%, 18%) and identified by
serologic criteria was 12% (95% CI 7%, 17%). CONCLUSIONS: Urinary infe
ction contributes to less than 10% of episodes of clinically significa
nt fever in this high-prevalence bacteriuric population. A restrictive
clinical definition for genitourinary infection has poor sensitivity
and specificity compared with serologic criteria for identification of
fever of urinary source, and bacteriuria has a low predictive value f
or identifying febrile urinary infection.