MARKOV-MODELS OF INERTIA AND DYNAMISM ON 2 CONTIGUOUS OHIO LANDSCAPES

This study examined landcover change during 1940-1988 in two contiguou s landscapes of approximately 12,400 hectares in central Ohio, USA: an inertial till plain area and a more dynamic moraine area. Agriculture dominated both landscapes throughout, however the cover of natural ve getation and urban-suburban development increased over time on the mor aine while natural vegetation decreased and agriculture increased on t he till plain. Markov process models for landcover change were constru cted for three 14-17-year time intervals and for the entire forty-eigh t-year study period. Probabilities of self-replacement for agricultura l lands (0.91-0.97) were higher and those for forests (0.54-0.65) lowe r than those reported for other landscapes. Predictions of bandcover p ercentages for fifty years in the future were made using Markov proces s models derived from actual cover changes in 1940-1957, 1971-1988, an d 1940-1988. All three models produced similar predictions ions for th e inertial till plain area. In contrast, the three models' predictions differed considerably for the moraine area. Only the 1971-1988 transi tion matrix was sensitive to increases in urbanization and reforestati on which began on the moraine in the 1970s. These results indicate tha t reliance on lengthy study intervals and net rates of change can obsc ure spatial and temporal patterns of landcover change that are caused by natural and socioeconomic factors operating on shorter rime scales.