PREDICTION OF PERIMENOPAUSAL FRACTURES BY BONE-MINERAL DENSITY AND OTHER RISK-FACTORS

In a prospective population-based cohort study, we assessed whether bo ne mineral density (BMD) measurements of perimenopausal women and othe r risk factors for osteoporosis are predictive of subsequent fracture, Women aged 47-51 years chosen randomly from a population register who underwent a bone density measurement 2 years previously were followed up by questionnaire to assess the 2-year incidence of any self-report ed fractures. We found that 44 women, out of 1857 who completed the qu estionnaire, sustained at least one fracture within a 2-year follow-up period, After adjustment for covariates, the odds ratio of sustaining a fracture was 1.6 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.16-234) for every standard deviation reduction in BMD at the spine, for women with a pri or history of fracture the odds ratio of a subsequent fracture was app roximately 2 (95% CI 131-3.03), a family history of hip fracture (mate rnal grandmother) carried an odds ratio of 3.7 (95% CI 155-8.85), whil e being postmenopausal or having a hysterectomy resulted in an odds ra tio of 1.98 (1.02-3.56), This study has shown that BMD measurements at the hip and spine and other risk factors predict any nonhip and nonsp ine perinenopausal fractures. Further follow-up is required to assess the predictive performance of BMD measurements and other risk factors for hip and spine fracture.