HEIGHTENING COMPARATIVISTS CONCERN FOR MODEL CHOICE - VOTING-BEHAVIORIN GREAT-BRITAIN AND THE NETHERLANDS

Theory: As the research methodology more closely approximates the caus al process being analyzed, the inferences and predictions derived from that methodology will better represent actual behavior. Statistical m odels were specified on the basis of accepted theories of voting behav ior and political cleavages in the Netherlands and Great Britain. Hypo theses: We hypothesize that multinomial models provide a more accurate characterization of voting behavior in countries with more than two p olitical parties competing for votes. Method: Binomial legit, multinom ial legit, and nested multinomial legit models of voting behavior are estimated on Dutch and British National Election Study data. Results: Compared to binomial methods, we find that multinomial models of votin g behavior produce results that are more congruent with accepted theor ies of Dutch and British politics.