ASIA-PACIFIC SECURITY REGIMES - CONDITIONS AND CONSTRAINTS

Security regimes constitute an important test of the 'liberal' school of thought in contemporary international relations. In the Asia-Pacifi c, interest is growing over how they may contribute to that region's f uture order and stability. IT is argued here, however, that Asia-Pacif ic security regimes cannot succeed unless 'realist' power-balancing st rategies are first applied, affording time for patterns of structural leadership to shape enduring security norms and institutions. The ASEA N Regional Forum (ARF) is arguably the region's first potential post-c old war security regime. Its fate, or that of its successor security r egimes in the Asia-Pacific, depends upon satisfying four critical cond itions for regime building and upon winning the acceptance of China an d the United States, the region's two key 'structural leaders'. while the ARF does not at present seem close to satisfying these criteria, i t may help to provide the breathing space necessary for a successful t ransition from a competitive cold war environment to a more cooperativ e climate in the Asia-Pacific.