A STOCHASTIC SIMULATION-MODEL FOR ASIAN ELEPHANT ELEPHAS-MAXIMUS POPULATIONS AND THE INHERITANCE OF TUSKS

In the framework of available historical data on population size and h uman impact on the Asian elephant Elephas maximus Linnaeus, 1758, we d eveloped a stochastic simulation model for elephant populations, which simulates individual elephants and includes their geno- and phenotype regarding the tusk character. The model omits density dependence of r eproduction parameters and mortality rates. The model predicts female mortality and mean calving interval to be the paramount factors determ ining the long-term population trend. For simulated female mortality r ates of 5% and 5.5% a mean calving interval of 5.2 years and 4.4-4.5 y ears, respectively, leads to stable populations, which is in accordanc e with values derived from field observations. Taking into account a h igher mortality of tuskers due to human impact, frequencies of the tus k allele were simulated both for dominant and recessive inheritance of the tusk character. The best accordance with census data was achieved , when the tusk allele was assumed to be dominant, combined with a sli ght reproductive advantage for tuskers. Since the model simulates popu lation dynamics and tusk allele frequencies under various mortality sc hedules, it can be used to predict the effect of conservation efforts on populations of the Asian elephant.