Background. The role of chronic medical conditions in elderly persons'
loss of functional abilities is intuitively important but not well de
fined. This analysis was designed to identify chronic medical conditio
ns that lead to the development of severe functional limitation. Metho
ds. Functionally intact members of a multistage probability sample (n
= 6,862) of all noninstitutionalized U.S. civilians age 70 years or ol
der were interviewed in 1984. Based on data from the National Death In
dex and from follow-up telephone interviews in 1988 with survivors, su
bjects were classified as functionally intact, functionally limited (u
nable to perform one or more of seven essential activities), or deceas
ed. Results. After adjusting for the effects of exercise habits and de
mographic, socioeconomic, and psychosocial factors, we found that the
best predictors of the development of functional limitation were cereb
rovascular disease (OR = 2.14; 95% CL = 1. 16, 3.98) and arthritis (OR
= 1.51; 95% CL = 1.08, 2.11). The contribution of coronary artery dis
ease also approached statistical significance (OR = 1.49; 95% CL = 0.9
9, 2.27). Conclusion. In the future, the primary prevention or effecti
ve treatment of cerebrovascular disease, arthritis, and possibly coron
ary artery disease may produce a modest reduction in the incidence of
severe functional limitation.