THE LONG-RUN AND SHORT-RUN IMPACTS OF GLOBAL COMPETITION ON US UNION WAGES

Union opposition to trade liberalizing agreements suggests that intern ational trade harms organized labor. Using union contract data, we ass ess both long- and short-run impacts of international trade on U.S. co llective bargaining outcomes. Results indicate that, in the short run, increases in either imports or exports reduce union wages. This is at tributed to risk aversion on the part of both unions and management. I n the long run, however trade has little net impact on average union w age settlements. in forming their opposition to more open U.S. trade p olicies, unions appear more concerned with short-run impacts of trade and are willing to trade-off immediate wage gains in lieu of future em ployment possibilities.