ELICITING STUDENT EXPECTATIONS OF THE RETURNS TO SCHOOLING

We report here on the design and first application of an interactive c omputer-assisted self-administered interview (CASI) survey eliciting f rom high school students and college undergraduates their expectations of the income they would earn if they were to complete different leve ls of schooling. We also elicit respondents' beliefs about current ear nings distributions. Whereas a scattering of earlier studies have elic ited point expectations of earnings unconditional on future schooling, we elicit subjective earnings distributions under alternative scenari os for future schooling. In this exploratory study, we find that respo ndents are willing and able to respond meaningfully to questions elici ting their earnings expectations in probabilistic form. The 110 respon dents vary considerably in their earnings expectations but there is a common belief that the returns to a college education are positive and that earnings rise between ages 30 and 40. There is a common belief t hat one's own future earnings are rather uncertain. Moreover, responde nts tend to over estimate the current degree of earnings inequality in American society.