CONCESSIONS, REPRESSION, AND POLITICAL PROTEST IN THE IRANIAN REVOLUTION

I investigate how and why the Shah's policies of accommodation and rep ression escalated the revolutionary mobilization of the Iranian popula tion. Several major theories-micromobilization theory, value expectanc y, and band-wagon (critical mass) models-are used to sort out the empi rical relationships between protest behavior (violent and nonviolent), strikes, spatial diffusion, concessions, and repression in the year p rior to the Shah's exit from Iran. Estimates from Poisson regression m odels show that repression had a short-term negative effect and a long -term positive effect on overall levels of protest via repression's in fluence on spatial diffusion. I infer that this pattern of effects ste ms from a combination of deterrent and micromobilization mechanisms. C oncessions expanded the protests by accelerating massive urban strikes that in turn generated more opposition activity throughout Iran. Spat ial diffusion was encouraged by government concessions and massive lab or strikes. Mutually reinforcing relationships between concessions, st rikes, and spatial diffusion indicate the significance of intergroup d ynamics in the revolutionary process.