STRUCTURAL OPPORTUNITY AND PERCEIVED OPPORTUNITY IN SOCIAL-MOVEMENT THEORY - THE IRANIAN REVOLUTION OF 1979

Tocquevillean analyses of social movements are limited to cases in whi ch structural opportunities (the vulnerability of the state to popular political pressure) coincide with perceived opportunities (the public 's awareness of opportunities for successful protest activity). This a lignment may not always occur, however I examine the implications of a mismatch between structural opportunities and perceived opportunities using participant and eyewitness accounts of the Iranian revolutionar y movement of 1977 through 1979. By several objective measures, the mo narchy was nor structurally vulnerable. Yet Iranians appear to have pe rceived opportunities for successful protest, basing their perceptions on a shift in the opposition movement, not on a shift in the structur al position of the state. In the conflict between structural condition s and perceived opportunities, the structural conditions gave way. Onl y by examining cases in which structural opportunities and perceived o pportunities are out of balance can the relative effect of each be det ermined.