PROBLEMS OF MEASURING CHANGES IN POVERTY OVER TIME - THE CASE OF UGANDA 1989-92

Official reports on household surveys of Uganda in 1989 and 1992 imply a 34 per cent fall in real consumption per household. Various adjustm ents are considered which reduce the apparent fall in living standards to 6 per cent. However, even these adjusted figures imply worsening l iving standards, increased poverty and greater inequality. The reliabi lity of such comparisons is questioned based on discrepancies concerni ng production estimates, household size, recall periods and budget sha res. It is hypothesized that these discrepancies arise from difference s in survey design. Such sensitivity suggests that estimates of econom ic welfare from conventional household surveys are more relative than commonly thought.