The prognostic significance of abnormal findings has not been demonstr
ated in a setting of mass screening. To evaluate the relative risk of
end-stage renal disease (ESRD) indicated by various results of communi
ty-based mass screening, we utilized the registries of both community
mass screening and chronic dialysis programs. In 1983, a total of 107,
192 subjects over 18 years of age (51,122 men and 56,070 women) partic
ipated in dipstick urinalysis and blood pressure measurement in Okinaw
a, Japan. During ten years of follow-up, we identified 193 dialysis pa
tients (105 men and 88 women) among them. Logistic regression analysis
of clinical predictors of ESRD over 10 years was done and the adjuste
d odds ratio and 95% confidence interval were calculated in each of th
e predictors with adjustment to others. In the clinical predictors suc
h as sex, age at screening, proteinuria, hematuria, systolic and diast
olic blood pressure, proteinuria was the most potent predictor of ESRD
(adjusted odds ratio 14.9, 95% confidence interval 10.9 to 20.2), and
the next most potent predictor was hematuria (adjusted odds ratio 2.3
0, 95% confidence interval 1.62 to 3.28). Being of male gender was a s
ignificant risk factor for ESRD (adjusted odds ratio 1.41, 95% confide
nce interval 1.04 to 1.92). Diastolic blood pressure was also a signif
icant predictor of ESRD (adjusted odds ratio 1.39, 95% confidence inte
rval 1.17 to 1.64), but systolic blood pressure was not. In a mass scr
eening setting, positive urine test, high diastolic blood pressure, an
d male sex were identified as the significant predictors of ESRD. Effe
ct of glycosuria and other possible predictors of ESRD remained to be
determined.