PREDICTION OF ADOLESCENT AFFECTIVE-DISORDER - EFFECTS OF PRIOR PARENTAL AFFECTIVE-DISORDERS AND CHILD PSYCHOPATHOLOGY

Objective: To examine the role of major parental and child diagnostic factors in predicting episodes of serious affective disorder in adoles cents in a nonreferred sample. Method: The sample included 139 youngst ers (average age 14 years at enrollment) drawn from a health maintenan ce organization and evaluated at two points in time 4 years apart. Bot h parents and adolescents were assessed using structured diagnostic in struments scored according to criterion systems. Parent and child life time diagnoses identified in the first assessment were used to predict the onset of episodes of serious affective disorder in the adolescent s which occurred between the first and second assessment. Results: Ste pwise multiple regression analyses of the significant univariate facto rs showed that the most powerful predictors of episodes of affective d isorder were total number of diagnoses the adolescents received prior to first assessment, lifetime duration of parental major depressive di sorder, and total number of lifetime nonaffective disorders of the par ents. Conclusion: Broad risk factors from different domains best predi ct episodes of affective disorder in children and adolescents.