A probabilistic creep analysis is made of an underground shaft in salt
in support of performance-assessment activities of the Waste Isolatio
n Pilot Plant (WIPP) Project. The finite-element method, coupled with
an advanced reliability technique, is used to perform the analysis. Ra
ndomness due to uncertainties in creep properties is addressed. The re
sults clearly demonstrate the utility of the advanced reliability appr
oach in making complex underground probabilistic creep analyses.