UNCERTAINTY AND SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS FOR GAS AND BRINE MIGRATION AT THE WASTE ISOLATION PILOT-PLANT - PERMEABLE SHAFT WITH PANEL SEALS

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis techniques based on Latin hypercu be sampling, partial correlation analysis, stepwise regression analysi s and examination of scatter plots are used in conjunction with the BR AGFLO model to examine two-phase (i.e., gas and brine) how at the Wast e Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP), which is being developed by the US Dep artment of Energy as a disposal facility for transuranic waste. The fo llowing topics are investigated to develop insights on factors that ar e potentially important in establishing compliance with applicable reg ulations of the US Environmental Protection Agency (i.e., 40 CFR 191, Subpart B; 40 CFR 268): (1) gas production due to corrosion of steel; (2) gas production due to microbial degradation of cellulosics; and (3 ) gas migration through a sealed shaft to the Culebra Dolomite. Import ant variables identified in the analysis include initial brine saturat ion of the waste, stoichiometric terms for corrosion of steel and micr obial degradation of cellulosics, and seal permeabilities.