A MODEL FOR THE SEISMIC RELIABILITY ASSESSMENT OF ELECTRIC-POWER TRANSMISSION-SYSTEMS

A comprehensive model to evaluate the seismic reliability of electric power transmission systems is presented. The model provides informatio n on the probability of structural failure of critical equipment at th e major substations, from which the corresponding probabilities of pow er disruption to a given service area are determined. With the propose d methodology earthquake ground motions are defined as stochastic proc esses, and seismic capacities of electrical equipment are determined o n the basis of available test data and simple modeling, from which fra gility functions of critical equipment and. specific substations are d eveloped. Probabilities of power disruption resulting from network dis connectivity and abnormal power how are assessed through Monte Carlo s imulation. As a case study, the proposed model is applied to the elect ric power network in San Francisco and vicinity under the 1989 Loma Pr ieta earthquake, and the probabilities of power interruption are contr asted with the actual power failures observed during that earthquake.