RISK OF DEATH FROM ACUTE-PANCREATITIS - ROLE OF EARLY, SIMPLE ROUTINEDATA

Conclusions. The analysis of all the data available in 192 patients at 24 h from admission shows that only serum glucose above 250 mg/dL (13 .88 mmol/L) and serum creatinine above 2 mg/dL (176.8 mu mol/L) are pr ognostic factors of death (P < 0.0001). When, however, pathological ch est X-rays are also considered in a subset of 149 patients, these and serum creatinine are prognostic factors of death with odds ratios of 2 .9 (95% CL 1.3-6.3) and 9.4 (95% CL 2.2-40.7), respectively (P < 0.000 1). Background. In patients suffering from acute pancreatitis, neither Ranson scores nor Glasgow criteria evaluation at 24 h yield a suffici ently reliable prognosis of the risk of death from the first acute att ack. Methods. After excluding posttraumatic, postsurgical, and post-ER CP acute pancreatitis, we selected 192 consecutive patients admitted i n the first instance to our center for a first attack, distinguishing between patients who died and patients who survived. We used Cox's mod el to analyze the prognostic weight of variables available within 24 h of admission (sex, age, alcohol intake, smoking habits, 17 biochemica l tests, body mass index, chest X-rays, body temperature, and shock st atus). Results. Seventeen (8.8%) patients died; mortality showed a dec reasing trend over the period of years considered and was correlated, among other things, with necrotizing type of pancreatitis, idiopathic etiology, and shock status on admission.