Objective: The study examined whether local variations in levels of co
mmunity-based services affect the case mix of state hospitals undergoi
ng census reduction. Methods: Trends in case mix over a 14-year period
were analyzed at two Massachusetts state hospitals, one of which unde
rwent more rapid census reduction due to expanded community resources
in the catchment area it served. Data on patients' hospital use and on
sociodemographic and diagnostic characteristics obtained from 1977, 1
986, and 1991 assessments of the hospitals' populations were compared.
These time points represented the beginning, midpoint, and end of the
census reduction period. Data from 1991 on patients' behavioral and f
unctional status were also examined. Results: Parallel trends on many
dimensions were evident at the two hospitals as their censuses fell, B
y 1986 the hospital operating in the area with greater community servi
ces had fewer elderly and long-stay patients but a higher number of ad
missions per patient. In 1991 this hospital's population also had more
patients with high-risk violent behaviors and lower levels of functio
ning, Conclusions: Although alternative treatment settings allow diver
sion of many types of patients from state hospitals, expanded communit
y-based services and alternative inpatient beds have not diverted some
patient subgroups, including recidivists and patients with behaviors
that present risks in other settings, Plans for meeting the clinical n
eeds and behavioral challenges posed by such patients must be part of
any further deinstitutionalization or privatization efforts.