INTEGRATING GLOBAL AND REGIONAL ANALYSES OF THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE-CHANGE - A CASE-STUDY OF LAND-USE IN ENGLAND AND WALES

The purpose of this paper is to exemplify a means by which an integrat ed assessment can be made of global and regional effects on land use o f climate change. This is achieved by use of data on the effects of cl imate change on world food prices as inputs to a regional land use all ocation model. Data on world prices are drawn from a recent global stu dy of climate change and crop yields. In a case study of England and W ales a land allocation model is used to infer changes of land use that are the product of the integrated effect of climate-induced global pr ice changes aid climate-related changes of yield in England and Wales. This combination of changed prices and yield potential is used to cal culate the land use providing the highest returns for each of 155,235 l km(2) cells of land in England and Wales for a future assumed for th e year 2060 (without climate change) and then for that same environmen t with climate change. The difference between these two is then treate d as an estimated effect resulting from climate change.