CLUE - A CONCEPTUAL-MODEL TO STUDY THE CONVERSION OF LAND-USE AND ITSEFFECTS

A dynamic model to simulate Conversion of Land Use and its Effects (CL UE) is presented. For an imaginary region, CLUE simulates land use con version and change in space and time as a result of interacting biophy sical and human drivers. Within CLUE regional land use changes only if biophysical and human demands cannot be met by existing land use. Aft er a regional assessment of land use needs, the final land use decisio ns are made on a local grid level. Important biophysical drivers are l ocal biophysical suitability and their fluctuations, land use history, spatial distribution of infrastructure and land use, and the occurren ce of pests and diseases. Important human land use drivers in CLUE are population size and density, regional and international technology le vel, level of affluence, target markets for products, economical condi tions, attitudes and values, and the applied land use strategy. Initia l CLUE simulations suggest that the integrated land use approach of CL UE can make a more realistic contribution to predictions of future lan d cover than currently used biophysical equilibrium approaches.