UPDATING SMALL-AREA POPULATION ESTIMATES IN ENGLAND AND WALES

Population estimates have important implications for resource allocati on within government and commerce, and are often assumed to be without error. Currently, central government provides annual population estim ates for all the local and health authority districts in Britain, but estimates are needed for smaller areas, typically for electoral wards and postal sectors. Small area estimates are provided by some local au thorities and commercial organizations, using different methods; the a ccuracy of these estimates is modelled here within a multilevel framew ork. Certain characteristics of the small area and of the method of es timation are included as explanatory variables. Results show that the method of estimation used is of great importance.