M. Franchini et al., STOCHASTIC STORM TRANSPOSITION COUPLED WITH RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODELING FOR ESTIMATION OF EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES OF DESIGN FLOODS, Journal of hydrology, 175(1-4), 1996, pp. 511-532
The stochastic storm transposition (SST) technique has been developed
and evaluated in previous studies for the estimation of exceedance pro
babilities of extreme precipitation depths. In this study it is extend
ed to the estimation of exceedance probabilities of extreme design flo
ods, The link between storms and flood peaks is provided by a rainfall
-runoff transformation and stochastic descriptions of antecedent moist
ure conditions and storm depth temporal distributions. Cumulative aver
age catchment depths produced by the SST approach have been converted
to a range of possible flood peak values using a rainfall-runoff model
(the ARNO model) and a probabilistic disaggregation scheme of cumulat
ive storm depths to hourly data. The analysis has been repeated for a
range of fixed antecedent moisture conditions. The probabilities of ex
ceedance of the produced flood peaks have been estimated and compared
to highlight the effect of antecendent moisture conditions on the magn
itude and frequency of produced floods as compared with the magnitude
and frequency of the corresponding average catchment depths.