Ar. Robinson et al., REAL-TIME OPERATIONAL FORECASTING ON SHIPBOARD OF THE ICELAND-FAEROE FRONTAL VARIABILITY, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 77(2), 1996, pp. 243-259
Real-time operational shipboard forecasts of Iceland-Faeroe frontal va
riability were executed for the first time with a primitive equation m
odel. High quality, intensive hydrographic surveys during August 1993
were used for initialization, updating, and validation of the forecast
s. Vigorous and rapid synoptic events occurred over several-day timesc
ales including a southeastward reorientation of the Iceland-Faeroe Fro
nt and the development of a strong, cold deep-sock meander. A qualitat
ive and quantitative assessment of the skill of these forecasts shows
they captured the essential features of both events. The anomaly patte
rn correlation coefficient and the rms error between forecast and obse
rved fields are particularly impressive (and substantially superior to
persistence) for the forecast of the cold meander.