REAL-TIME OPERATIONAL FORECASTING ON SHIPBOARD OF THE ICELAND-FAEROE FRONTAL VARIABILITY

Real-time operational shipboard forecasts of Iceland-Faeroe frontal va riability were executed for the first time with a primitive equation m odel. High quality, intensive hydrographic surveys during August 1993 were used for initialization, updating, and validation of the forecast s. Vigorous and rapid synoptic events occurred over several-day timesc ales including a southeastward reorientation of the Iceland-Faeroe Fro nt and the development of a strong, cold deep-sock meander. A qualitat ive and quantitative assessment of the skill of these forecasts shows they captured the essential features of both events. The anomaly patte rn correlation coefficient and the rms error between forecast and obse rved fields are particularly impressive (and substantially superior to persistence) for the forecast of the cold meander.