MODELIZATION OF AIDS IN FRENCH-GUYANA

A projection of AIDS cases in French Guyana through the year 2004 was made in 2 population groups, Haitians and non Haitians. A descriptive method and a compartimental model have been used respectively for the haitian group and the non haitian group; a reference scenario has been defined on the assumption that present trends will continue unchanged ; pessimistic and optimistic scenarios have also been developed. Under the reference scenario in 2004, the cumulated number of AIDS cases wo uld amount to 1327 for an estimated population of 120.000 inhabitants in 1991; in case of optimistic and pessimistic scenarios, this number would amount respectively to 1201 and 1507. In any case, French Guyana is likely to stay the first district in France with regard to AIDS in cidence.