SOLAR-ACTIVITY FORECAST FOR SOLAR-CYCLE-23

In this paper, we predict the next cycle's activity and improve the ti ming of solar cycle predictions. Dynamo-based solar activity predictio n techniques rely upon two properties inherent in the solar cycle: tha t solar magnetism oscillates between poloidal and toroidal components; and that there is a degree of ''magnetic persistence'' in dynamos, wh ich in the cask of the Sun, results in the dependence of many magnetic related quantities (activity related quantities) upon the amount of m agnetism embedded below the Sun's surface. Using the SODA (SOlar Dynam o Amplitude) index as a measure of magnetic persistence, we predict th at solar cydle # 23 will reach a mean smoothed F10.7 peak of 182 +/- 3 0 solar flux units (sfu) and a mean sunspot number Rz of 138 +/- 30. T his is particularly intriguing because the ''folklore'' is that odd cy cles are larger than the preceding even cycle. Additionally, by tracki ng the equatorward march of solar activity, the timing of the cycle ca n be better estimated. From this, we estimate that the next solar maxi mum will occur near May, 2000 +/- 9 months.