VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF WATER-RESOURCES IN EGYPT TO CLIMATIC-CHANGE IN THE NILE BASIN

The impacts of global climate change on the water resources of the Nil e River Basin were evaluated using simulation models. Four climate cha nge scenarios were evaluated (baseline, GISS, GFDL, and UKMO). The com plete impact of climatic changes in the Nile cannot be fully predicted with confidence, as some models forecast increased flows, while other s project significant decreases. However, it was observed that the Nil e River flow is extremely sensitive to ambient temperature and precipi tation changes, and it is possible that the effects of climatic fluctu ations would be severe. Several water management options were identifi ed to help adapt Nile River management to a changing global climate.