METHODS FOR ASSESSING THE VULNERABILITY OF AFRICAN FISHERIES RESOURCES TO CLIMATE-CHANGE

Because of the dietary and financial importance of fisheries resources in many African countries, concerns have been expressed regarding the potential for adverse impacts to fisheries resources from climate cha nge, and a need has been identified for assessment tools that can eval uate the potential for impacts in a timely and cost-effective manner. This paper presents a framework and set of methods for assessing the p otential effects of climate change on fisheries resources in Africa. T he framework identifies the need to first link predicted climate chang es to changes in the aquatic environment, and only then can potential impacts to aquatic resources be evaluated. The approach developed for Africa was constrained by several factors, including availability of e xisting data and assessment technologies, and the need for a rapid eva luation of potential climate impacts. The assessment approach employs a variety of methods including empirical models which predict changes in mortality, maximum sustainable yield, and yearly catch, a bioenerge tics model, and a habitat suitability model Previously developed or ne wly derived site-specific empirical models can be used to compare mort ality, yield, and annual catch estimates among historic, current, and predicted climate conditions. Similarly, bioenergetics modeling can be used to compare growth rates and biomass production among different c limate conditions. Habitat suitability models can be developed for cur rent climate conditions, and the effects of changes in climate-driven habitat variables such as water depth, temperature, and current veloci ty on habitat suitability can be evaluated for different climate condi tions. Use of these approaches is recommended because they can utilize existing ecological data and do not require extensive new data collec tion activities, they are not technologically complex, and they can pr ovide evaluations of potential climate change impacts in a timely and cost-effective manner.