METHODS FOR ASSESSING PUBLIC-HEALTH VULNERABILITY TO GLOBAL CLIMATE-CHANGE

Assessment of the human health risk posed by global climate change pre sents a new challenge to public health professionals. In contrast to c onventional toxicological risk assessment, the health risk assessment related to global climate change must analyze stressors that consist o f complex interrelated climate factors and risks that are mediated thr ough intermediate species in varying ecosystems. A framework for ecolo gically based human health risk assessment helps distinguish the conce pts of global climate change risk assessment from conventional risk as sessment. Specific methods for linking climate variables with human di sease include historical analysis of climate and disease data and the development of integrated mathematical models. Two historical climate- disease studies of malaria in Africa provide a starting point for furt her analysis. Early approaches to evaluating the human health risks fr om global climate change will include simple mapping of disease bounda ries and climate factors. Computer-based geographical information syst em (GIS) technology will assist in the organization and analysis of cl imate, environment and disease data. Ultimately, complex integrated ma thematical models may provide quantitative estimates of risk, but thes e models have not yet been validated. The collection of geographically organized relevant data through either field work or remote sensing t echnology will both help validate comprehensive integrated models and enhance our understanding of the associations between climate change a nd human health.