TESTING A MODEL OF TECHNOLOGICAL TRAJECTORIES

In this paper, we test a model of technological trajectories. Quantita tive predictions are based on some qualitative statements described in Pavitt's taxonomy (Research Policy, 1984, 13, 343-373). The test conc erned both the realism of the predicted associations between industria l sectors and patterns of technical change, and the predictive power o f the model. The data come from Central Statistical Office of Italy (I STAT)-National Research Council of Italy (CNR) a survey on technologic al innovation in the Italian manufacturing industry. The results of th e test do not seem inconsistent with the model's predictions, although one of them turned out to be of little significe from a statistical s tandpoint. The variability of innovative behaviour at firm level is co nfirmed once again, thus making more challenging the task of those sea rching for useful theories on industrial patterns of technological inn ovation.