CONTEXTUAL INFLUENCES ON YOUNG MENS TRANSITION TO FIRST MARRIAGE

Competing theories of marriage formation are evaluated by merging seve ral contextual variables, primarily marriage market characteristics fr om the 1980 census, with men's marital histories observed between 1979 and 1984 in the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth. Discrete-time event history models reveal that, net of conventional individual-level predictors, a shortage of prospective partners in the local marriage market impedes white men's transition to first marriage. Women's aggre gate economic independence, measured in terms of the proportion of fem ales in the local marriage market who are employed anti in terms of th e size of average AFDC payments, also diminishes man's marriage propen sities. Although earnings and home ownership facilitate men's marital transitions, racial differences in socioeconomic and marriage market c haracteristics account for relatively little of the substantial racial difference in marriage rates.