CAPABILITY AND HOSTILE BEHAVIOR IN ARMS-RACE MODELS

The interplay of capability and hostile behavior as indicators of thre at is under-conceptualized in arms-race research. I propose that the m otivation (intentions) attributed to a state's hostile acts depends on its capability: the less capable it is, the stronger the motivation. Controlling for the amount of hostile acts, if a state's capability le vel rises over time its intentions would appear less malign, hence the state might seem less threatening (if threat perception is sensitive to intentions). In a static arms-competition model this implies a hypo thesized negative sign for the arms-reaction coefficient. I support th is interpretation primarily by testing a statistical model of the U.S. -Soviet arms competition and, secondarily by showing that past quantit ative research also generated considerable, yet little-noticed, eviden ce of negative coefficient signs.