CLASSICAL DETERRENCE THEORY - A CRITICAL-ASSESSMENT

This essay summarizes and critically evaluates the conceptual underpin nings of Classical (or Rational) Deterrence Theory. The paradigm's ori gins are traced to Realist political thought and balance of power poli tics. Two distinct, yet compatible, strands of the theory are identifi ed: Structural Deterrence and Decision-Theoretic Deterrence Theory. St ructural (or Neorealist) Deterrence Theory sees the key to internation al stability in the distribution of power within the system in general , and among the great powers in particular. By contrast, Decision-Theo retic Deterrence Theory focuses upon the interplay of outcomes, prefer ences and rational choices in determining interstate conflict behavior . The critical deductions of both strands of the theory are at odds wi th the empirical record and each is hard put to explain the stability of the post-war period. As well, mainstream Decision-Theoretic Deterre nce Theory is logically inconsistent. The essay concludes with a brief discussion of some potential responses to the theory's inadequacies.