EFFECTS OF PRICE AND MANAGEMENT LEVEL ON OPTIMAL REPLACEMENT AND INSEMINATION DECISIONS

A stochastic dynamic model was used to evaluate the effects of price a nd management changes on optimal decisions for replacement and insemin ation. A simulation was used to determine the added value of optimized decisions over benefits from typical recommendations. Five levels wer e specified for each input. Inputs were varied individually and then p laced into price or management categories and varied as groups. Five p rice levels and five management levels were defined. All 25 possible c ombinations of price and management level were examined. One combinati on represented typical Florida inputs and was used as a base run. The variation of model outputs resulting from the uncertainty in specifyin g inputs was used to determine which results represented meaningful ch ange from the base run. Varying inputs individually rarely caused mean ingful changes in optimal policy with the exception of pregnancy rate. However, varying inputs in price and management groups consistently r esulted in meaningful changes in optimal policies. In addition, intera ctions between price and management level were important. Just as opti mal replacement and insemination policies changed with different decis ion contexts, the value of these policies also changed. Results make i t readily apparent that replacement and insemination policies should b e specific to a given situation.