MODELING FUTURE VEHICLE EXHAUST EMISSIONS IN EUROPE

Vehicle exhaust emissions are significant sources of air pollution in many European countries. Emissions of oxides of nitrogen and volatile organic compounds contribute to transboundary air pollution, and the e nvironmental problems of acidification, eutrophication and tropospheri c ozone formation. This paper presents estimates of future exhaust emi ssions from load vehicles within countries of the United Nations Econo mic Commission for Europe region for two control scenarios. Alternativ e regulatory standards are examined including a Current Plans scenario and a Best Available Technology scenario. Calculations presented in t his paper suggest that Current Plans could reduce emissions of oxides of nitrogen from road vehicles by about 70 per cent and that the appli cation of Best Available Technology to gasoline and diesel vehicles co uld reduce emissions by 80 per cent. The paper ends with a discussion of the many interactions between transport and the environment and it is suggested that combinations of regulatory approaches will be needed if the environmental impact of road transportation is to be reduced i n the future.