MODELING SSAS SEQUENTIAL DISABILITY DETERMINATION PROCESS USING MATCHED SIPP DATA

We model the Social Security Administration's (SSA's) disability deter mination process using household survey information exact matched to S SA administrative information on disability determinations. Survey inf ormation on health, activity limitations, demographic traits, and work are taken from the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP). We estimate a multistage sequential legit model, reflecting the struc ture of the determination procedure used by State Disability Determina tion Services agencies. The findings suggest that the explanatory powe r of particular variables can be appropriately ascertained only if the y are introduced at the relevant stage of the determination process. H ence, as might be expected by those familiar with the process, medical variables and activity limitations are major factors in the early sta ges of the process, while past work, age, and education play roles in later stages. The highly detailed administrative information on outcom es at each stage allows clarification of the roles of particular varia bles. Planned future work will include policy estimates, such as the n umber of persons in the general population eligible for the disability programs, as well as analysis of applications behavior in a household context.