PROJECTIONS OF INPATIENT ADMISSIONS TO SPECIALTY MENTAL-HEALTH ORGANIZATIONS - 1990 TO 2010

Objective: To help Predict changes in patterns of service delivery, th e total number of inpatient admissions to specialty mental health orga nizations and the number of elderly persons (over age 65) admitted wer e projected in five-year intervals between 1990 and 2010. Methods: One set of projections is based on 1986 rates of use and their coefficien ts of variation. A second, more accurate, set is based on 1990 rates d erived from logarithmic projections of trends from 1980 to 1986 and th e coefficients of variation for the 1986 rates. Results: Projections b ased on 1990 rates show an increase of more than 25 percent in the tot al number of inpatient admissions to all specialty mental health organ izations between 1986 and 2010 and an increase of more than 40 percent in elderly admissions. Nonfederal general hospitals are expected to h ave the largest increases in the number of total admissions, and state and county mental hospitals the smallest. The greatest percentage gro wth in total admissions will occur in private psychiatric hospitals. F or elderly persons, inpatient admissions to Veterans Affairs medical c enters will show the largest percentage increase, and admissions to st ate and county mental hospitals the smallest, By 2010 the majority of elderly admissions (67.6 percent) will be to nonfederal general hospit als. Conclusions: Plans to cope with increased demand for inpatient se rvices should take into account the potential economic consequences of the forecasted changes as well as their effects on allocation of and access to services.