SIMULATION STUDIES ON THE EPIDEMIOLOGIC IMPACT OF NATIONAL IDENTIFICATION AND RECORDING-SYSTEMS ON THE CONTROL OF CLASSICAL SWINE FEVER IN BELGIUM

A state-transition simulation model was used to study the impact of fo ur different national identification and recording (I&R) systems on th e control of classical swine fever (CSF) in Belgium: (1) the system cu rrently used in Belgium; (2) a revised system which is about to be int roduced in Belgium; (3) a system based on electronic identification; ( 4) a system similar to (3) but extended with electronic monitoring. Th e simulation model and the modelling approach are described in this pa per. The main conclusions of the simulation studies were: (1) using th e current I&R system, only strategies that include pre-emptive removal succeed in eradication of CSF in high-density regions; (2) the CSF co ntrol can be remarkably improved in high- and medium-density regions u sing the revised I&R system, hence introduction is justifiable on the grounds of CSF control; (3) more sophisticated electronic I&R systems can help to reduce the impact of CSF further, especially in high-densi ty regions; (4) the CSF control strategy applied influences the effect of I&R system improvement; (5) critical aspects in CSF control are th e tracing of carrier herds and the reduction of the so-called pre-peri od of the epidemic.