A MORE REALISTIC APPROACH TO THE CUMULATIVE PREGNANCY RATE AFTER IN-VITRO FERTILIZATION

As most studies overestimate the cumulative pregnancy rate, a method i s proposed to estimate a more realistic cumulative pregnancy rate by t aking into account the reasons for an early cessation of treatment wit h in-vitro fertilization (IVF). Three methods for calculating cumulati ve pregnancy rates were compared, The first method assumed that those who stopped treatment had no chance at all of pregnancy. The second me thod, the one used most often, assumed the same probability of pregnan cy for those who stopped as for those who continued, The third method assumed that only those who stopped treatment, because of a medical in dication, had no chance at all of pregnancy and that the others who st opped had the same probability of pregnancy as those who continued tre atment, Data were used from 616 women treated at the University Hospit al Nijmegen, Nijmegen, The Netherlands, The cumulative pregnancy rates after five initiated IVF cycles for the three calculation methods wer e in the ranges 37-51% for the positive pregnancy test result, 33-55% for a clinical pregnancy and 30-56% for an ongoing pregnancy, As expec ted, the first method underestimated the cumulative pregnancy rate and the second overestimated it, The third method produced the most reali stic cumulative pregnancy rates.