MODEL SIMULATIONS TO ESTIMATE MALARIA RISK UNDER CLIMATE-CHANGE

The current geographic range of malaria is much smaller than its poten tial range. In many regions there exists a phenomena characterized as ''Anophelism without malaria.'' The vectors are present but malaria tr ansmission does not occur. Vectorial capacity often has been used as a parameter to estimate the susceptibility of an area to malaria. Model computations with global climatological data show that a dynamic conc ept of vectorial capacity can be used as a comparative risk indicator to predict the current extent and distribution of malarious regions in tile world. A sensitivity analysis done in 3 distinct geographic area s shows that die areas of largest change of epidemic potential caused by a temperature increase are those where mosquitoes already occur but where development of the parasite is limited by temperature. Computat ions with the model presented here predict, with different climate sce narios, an increased malaria risk in areas bordering malaria endemic r egions and at higher altitudes within malarious regions under a temper ature increase of 2-4 degrees C.