A STOCHASTIC-MODEL FOR RESERVOIR FLOOD OPERATION

A stochastic streamflow model is used to develop a risk methodology fo r operation of reservoirs. The model is based upon representation of t he flood series as a Poisson counting process. From this model, probab ility distributions of maximum peak flows, durations, and interarrival times can be obtained. With these distributions known, the flood volu mes can be obtained using a triangular hydrograph approximation. Using the derived distribution functions, risk evaluation curves are develo ped which aid the reservoir operator in making important real time dec isions. The procedure can also be used to evaluate the efficiency of a lternative design strategies.