Nicotine polacrilex (''nicotine gum'') is effective in helping persons
to quit smoking cigarettes. Because many persons try to quit without
formal assistance, it may be an appropriate product for over-the-count
er (OTC) purchase. Some smokers, however, might use such a product in
lieu of more effective methods of cessation, and still others might us
e it to cope with enforced periods of nicotine abstinence (eg, at the
work place) and thereby delay their decision to quit. The study's obje
ctive was to assess the public health benefits and risks of OTC availa
bility of nicotine gum. A Markov model was developed and used to contr
ast two alternative policy scenarios: one in which nicotine gum was as
sumed to remain available only by prescription, and another in which i
t was assumed to be made available for OTC purchase. Various data sour
ces were used to estimate the model, including the Health Promotion an
d Disease Prevention Supplement to the 1991 National Health Interview
Survey and the 1986 Adult Use of Tobacco Survey. Primary outcome measu
res included the numbers of persons who would try to quit smoking, the
numbers who would use various methods of smoking cessation, including
OTC nicotine gum, and the numbers of current adult smokers who would
be abstinent at the end of 10 years. Findings suggest that an average
of 3 million persons each year would use OTC nicotine gum. As a conseq
uence of OTC availability, an additional 450,000 smokers would be abst
inent at the end of 10 years. These results are sensitive to assumptio
ns regarding the effectiveness of OTC nicotine gum, as well as to the
effect of OTC availability on the use of other methods of smoking cess
ation. The number of persons who would quit smoking, however, increase
s under a fairly wide range of assumptions. Over-the-counter availabil
ity of nicotine gum may confer significant public health benefits.