APPLICATION OF THE DECOMPOSITION TECHNIQUE FOR FORECASTING THE LOAD OF A LARGE ELECTRIC-POWER NETWORK

A reliable electric load forecasting technique is introduced. In this technique, a suitable model to fit the data is selected before the act ual forecasting algorithm is performed. The model is constructed in th ree steps: identification, estimation and diagnostic checking. This mo del is then used by two decomposition techniques (multiplicative and a dditive) to forecast the electric load. The techniques are illustrated by applying them to the forecast of the monthly peak loads of a large electric power network. The Egyptian electric power network peak load s data are used in this study. Analysis and comparison of the results have shown that the techniques are adequate and yield good results.