PREDICTION OF RISK OF LIVER-DISEASE BY ALCOHOL INTAKE, SEX, AND AGE -A PROSPECTIVE POPULATION STUDY

The association between self-reported alcohol intake and the risk of f uture liver disease was studied in a large population-based prospectiv e cohort with 12-year follow-up. Alcohol intake was assessed in 13,285 men and women aged 30 to 79 years by a self-administered questionnair e. Diagnoses indicating alcohol-induced liver disease (n = 261) or alc ohol-induced cirrhosis (n = 124) were obtained from death certificates and the hospital discharge register, and data were analyzed by multip licative Poisson regression models, The total cumulated observation ti me was 130,558 person-years. The overall incidence rates of alcohol-in duced cirrhosis were 0.2% per year in men and 0.03% per year in women. The nadir of the estimated relative risk of developing liver disease was observed at an alcohol intake of 1 to 6 beverages per week, and ab ove this level a steep increase in relative risk, was observed, The ri sk function was independent of age and stable over time. The level of alcohol intake above which the relative risk was significantly greater than 1 was observed at 7 to 13 beverages per week for women and 14 to 27 beverages per week for men. Women had a significantly higher relat ive risk of developing alcohol-related liver disease than men for any given level of alcohol intake, We observed a dose-dependent increase i n relative risk of developing alcohol-induced liver disease for both m en and women, with the steepest increase among women. In the general p opulation, self-reported current alcohol intake is a good predictor of the future risk of alcohol-induced liver disease.