CANDIDATE CHANCES, IDEOLOGICAL MODERATION, AND AMERICAN NOMINATION POLITICS - A SIMULATION APPROACH

This study employs a decision model to study the effects on popular su pport of candidate chances and candidate moderation in the American pr esidential nomination process. The decision model draws upon psycholog ical and rational choice theories of decision making to accommodate bo th the complexity of choice citizens face in the typical nomination ca mpaign, and the need to keep decision costs in bounds. We use the mode l to simulate voter decision making under repeated trials of nominatio n campaigns. The simulation trials vary the chances candidates have of winning their party's nomination, and the ideological moderation of c ompeting nomination candidates. Our results show that increasing a can didate's chances for the nomination can have substantial payoff in sup port, but that the consequences of moderating a candidate's ideologica l stand are more muted. Our research speaks to broader guest ions of d ecision making when information costs are high but cognitive effort re mains low, and to the resolution of intraparty conflict in a dynamic a nd volatile political environment.