MODELING THE IMPACT OF CLIMATIC-CHANGE ON GROWTH OF SPRING BARLEY IN FINLAND

According to the present scenarios, atmospheric CO2-concentration ([CO 2]) and the average air temperature of the earth will rise in future. The predicted longer growing season in Finland would mean that more pr oductive cultivars and even new crop species could be grown in Finland . Moreover, in addition to increase in crop productivity caused by lon ger growing period, higher [CO2] is also likely to increase dry matter production of crops in the future. This paper describes a crop model which could be used to estimate the effect of rises in air temperature and [CO2] on development and growth of cereals. Based on the results of the spring barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) cultivar used in the present study, day length may only have a limited effect on the rate of devel opment under Finnish growing conditions, even if sowing could be done 1 month earlier than at present (currently early May in southern Finla nd). The crop model used in the present simulation study was able to t ake into account reasonably well the effect of solar radiation, air te mperature and [CO2] on crop growth. However, as the validation experim ent was conducted with only one soil type and one fertilization level, more research still needs to be done to validate the present model in a range of field conditions.