AGRICULTURAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL-CHANGES IN THE UPPER EUPHRATES CATCHMENT OF TURKEY AND SYRIA AND THEIR POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC-IMPLICATIONS

In southeast Turkey a number of large irrigation projects have been pl anned to utilize the waters of the Euphrates river held in the reservo ir behind the Ataturk Dam. When these projects are fully operational t he flow of the Euphrates into Syria will be substantially reduced. Thi s has already led to complaints from the downstream countries of Syria and Iraq. The environmental impacts of importing large volumes of wat er into the watersheds of two tributaries of the Euphrates, the Balikh and the Khabour (which in their lower courses flow through Syria), ar e expected to be considerable, particularly on the relatively small Ri ver Balikh. Problems are most likely to be caused as a result of irrig ation return waters, which may be highly saline and may be up to twice the river's natural flow Downstream effects could be increased still further as Syria is planning a large irrigation scheme in the lower pa rt of the Balikh catchment. One of the aims of the present project is to assess the usefulness of satellite data for estimating agricultural changes within the upper part of the Euphrates basin. Satellite image ry of the two catchments from the mid-1980s, before large-scale irriga tion development began, reveals a largely traditional agricultural pat tern, characterized by rain-fed cultivation in the extreme northern pa rt of the region and irrigated agriculture along the major floodplains . Modern commercial agriculture was confined to groundwater developmen ts in the upper Khabour and to projects adjacent to the Euphrates floo dplain downstream from the Tabqa dam. Throughout the arid southeastern part of the region agriculture was confined to a few small sites wher e groundwater was available for irrigation. Elsewhere scrub desert veg etation prevailed. It is on to this traditional pattern of agricultura l activity that the modern irrigation projects will be superimposed. I n Turkey, rain-fed agriculture will be replaced by irrigation. In Syri a, land that has not previously been cultivated will be utilized for l arge-scale irrigation activity. Potential problems here are thus likel y to be much greater than in Turkey.